Case file · CIK 0002045724

Situational Awareness LP

AI infrastructure fund founded by Leopold Aschenbrenner, used as the first case file.

Leopold AschenbrennerFounder
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Situational Awareness Fund portfolio wheel

KOL-style case note

This is Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund.

A former OpenAI researcher turned a first public 13F into one of the cleanest AI infrastructure stories in the market: AI needs power, optics, land, and compute before it needs another app layer.

The insight

The portfolio does not read like generic AI hype. It reads like a physical bottleneck map: power generation, data-center real estate, GPU rental capacity, optical networking, and strategic U.S. semiconductor optionality.

Bloom Energy

Bloom is the direct power thesis. If hyperscalers cannot wait for grid interconnects, on-site fuel cells become a way to bring AI capacity online faster. In this filing, Bloom is the flagship expression of the power-before-everything view.

CoreWeave

CoreWeave is the compute rental line, and the filing shows both stock exposure and call-option exposure. That makes the bet more convex: if frontier labs keep renting GPU capacity, the disclosed portfolio benefits twice.

Intel calls

The Intel call position is the contrarian option. The thesis is less that Intel suddenly becomes flawless and more that U.S.-based foundry capacity could become strategically hard to ignore if Taiwan risk is repriced.

Lumentum and optics

At million-GPU scale, the bottleneck shifts from chips to moving data between chips. Lumentum sits in the optical component layer that makes high-speed AI cluster networking possible.

Power-to-AI pivots

Core Scientific, IREN, and Applied Digital are different versions of the same scarce-asset trade: cheap power, sites, and interconnect potential that can be redirected from crypto mining or greenfield campuses toward AI colocation.

What the whole portfolio says

The single story is not 'buy AI.' It is 'buy what AI physically requires to exist': electricity, cooling, fiber, photons, chips, and land. That is why this case file starts with holdings, then works backward into the manager's thesis.

Narrative layer only. The verifiable layer is the SEC 13F table below; market prices, revenue claims, and future outcomes should be checked separately.

Six-stock thesis memo

Why these six lines matter

The first read is not 'AI software.' It is the scarce physical stack behind AI factories: lasers, optics, GPU cloud, powered land, colocation, and behind-the-meter electricity.

#1$LITELumentum

Core productEML lasers, optical circuit switch components, co-packaged-optics laser supply.

ThesisA direct play on the optical bottleneck inside AI factories.

  • NVIDIA announced a $2B investment and multiyear purchase/capacity agreement.
  • Lumentum has discussed OCS backlog above $400M and incremental CPO demand.
  • A new U.S. InP laser manufacturing site strengthens domestic supply.
NVIDIA / Lumentum
#2$COHRCoherent

Core product800G/1.6T transceivers, InP lasers, optical switching, CPO-enabling components.

ThesisA broader optics supplier: less pure than Lumentum, but hedged across multiple photonics architectures.

  • NVIDIA announced a separate $2B investment and purchase commitment.
  • Management materials point to strong AI datacom demand visibility.
  • The product set spans silicon photonics, InP, VCSEL and optical networking.
NVIDIA / Coherent
#3$CRWVCoreWeave

Core productGPU cloud for AI workloads across NVIDIA H100/B200 and next-generation clusters.

ThesisThe clean compute-capacity expression: frontier AI labs and hyperscalers rent the scarce GPU factory.

  • CoreWeave and Meta announced an approximately $21B long-term AI cloud agreement through 2032.
  • The agreement includes initial NVIDIA Vera Rubin deployments.
  • Backlog and financing visibility make the stock a leveraged read-through on external AI cloud demand.
SEC exhibit
#4$CORZCore Scientific

Core productHigh-density AI/HPC colocation capacity converted from Bitcoin-mining infrastructure.

ThesisA powered-land and interconnect thesis: old mining infrastructure becomes AI infrastructure if customers need power fast.

  • The CoreWeave/Core Scientific relationship was framed around eliminating future lease obligations and securing power.
  • The $9B acquisition announcement supported the vertical-integration thesis.
  • Deal status must be rechecked before publishing; do not treat 'pending' as source-backed without a fresh filing.
CoreWeave filing
#5$APLDApplied Digital

Core productAI data-center campuses leased under long-term capacity contracts.

ThesisA greenfield powered-campus bet: it monetizes scarce megawatts through long-duration hyperscaler leases.

  • Applied Digital reported 600MW leased across Polaris Forge 1 and 2.
  • Management disclosed approximately $16B of aggregate prospective lease revenue.
  • CoreWeave is the named customer for Polaris Forge 1.
Applied Digital
#6$BEBloom Energy

Core productSolid oxide fuel cells for behind-the-meter data-center power.

ThesisThe power-first bet: on-site generation can move faster than traditional grid interconnect timelines.

  • Bloom announced an expanded Oracle partnership for up to 2.8GW of fuel-cell systems.
  • Bloom and Brookfield announced a $5B strategic AI infrastructure partnership.
  • The investment case is about speed-to-power and backlog conversion, not just clean-energy branding.
Bloom Energy

Smart Money VelocityVelocity score blends 13F value growth, concentration, theme purity, option exposure, and filing history. It is a prioritization score, not a return.

88
Velocity + theme concentration

Score blends filing growth, concentration, theme purity, call exposure, and filing history.

13F value

$5.5BQ4 2025, latest public filing

Growth since first filing

21.65x$254.8M$5.5B

Reporting lag13F filings arrive after the quarter ends. The page shows a delayed public snapshot, not live positions.

45dQuarter-end snapshot, not live positions
Public Disclosure Proxy Return

This is not actual fund performance. Returns and rankings use public disclosures after they become visible, not private NAV or live trading.

Disclosure workflow

How to read this page

Every number is anchored to a public quarterly filing. The report date is the portfolio snapshot; the filing date is when the market could actually see it.

Report quarterQ4 2025Public filing date2026-02-11Ranking startsafter public filingRanking gate70% price coverageCoverage is the share of eligible public holdings that can be mapped to a ticker and priced. Debt, internal funds, and non-priced lines are excluded from the denominator.

Public holdings

Q4 2025 exposure map

2913F lines
HoldingThemeTypeValue%
BLOOM ENERGY CORPBE · 10,076,022 sharesPowerSH$875.5M15.9%
COREWEAVE INCCRWV · 10,814,500 underlying sharesComputeCALL$774.4M14.0%
INTEL CORPINTC · 20,237,400 underlying sharesSemisCALL$746.8M13.5%
LUMENTUM HLDGS INCLITE · 1,298,400 sharesOpticsSH$478.6M8.7%
COREWEAVE INCCRWV · 6,098,812 sharesComputeSH$436.7M7.9%
CORE SCIENTIFIC INC NEWCORZ · 28,756,478 sharesDC BitcoinSH$418.7M7.6%
IREN LIMITEDIREN · 8,700,621 sharesDC BitcoinSH$328.6M6.0%
APPLIED DIGITAL CORPAPLD · 11,339,060 sharesComputeSH$278M5.0%
SANDISK CORPSNDK · 1,054,200 sharesSemisSH$250.2M4.5%
CIPHER MINING INCCIFR · 10,469,093 sharesDC BitcoinSH$154.5M2.8%
EQT CORPEQT · 2,482,225 sharesPowerSH$133M2.4%
COHERENT CORPCOHR · 480,300 sharesOpticsSH$88.6M1.6%
SOLARIS ENERGY INFRAS INCSEI · 1,866,500 sharesPowerSH$85.8M1.6%
TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR LTDTSEM · 723,004 sharesSemisSH$84.9M1.5%
RIOT PLATFORMS INCRIOT · 6,167,700 sharesDC BitcoinSH$78.1M1.4%
KILROY RLTY CORPKRC · 1,327,700 sharesComputeSH$49.6M0.90%
HUT 8 CORPHUT · 860,200 sharesDC BitcoinSH$39.5M0.72%
EQT CORPEQT · 700,000 underlying sharesPowerCALL$37.5M0.68%
BLOOM ENERGY CORPBE · 408,500 underlying sharesPowerCALL$35.5M0.64%
WHITEFIBER INCWYFI · 1,757,600 sharesComputeSH$27.8M0.50%
POWER SOLUTIONS INTL INCPSIX · 432,300 sharesPowerSH$24.7M0.45%
BITDEER TECHNOLOGIES GROUPBTDR · 1,788,000 sharesDC BitcoinSH$20M0.36%
CLEANSPARK INCCLSK · 1,640,400 sharesDC BitcoinSH$16.6M0.30%
BITFARMS LTDBITF · 6,897,100 sharesDC BitcoinSH$16.2M0.29%
LIBERTY ENERGY INCLBRT · 567,200 sharesPowerSH$10.5M0.19%
INFOSYS LTDINFY · 500,000 underlying sharesHedgePUT$8.9M0.16%
PROPETRO HLDG CORPPUMP · 910,300 sharesPowerSH$8.7M0.16%
BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISESBW · 1,353,900 sharesPowerSH$8.6M0.16%
INTEL CORPINTC · 1 sharesSemisSH$370.00%

Quarter tape

Reported 13F value

SEC EDGAR
Q4 2024$254.8MQ1 2025$1BQ2 2025$2.1BQ3 2025$4.1BQ4 2025$5.5B

Signal breakdown

Why this matters

88
VelocityVelocity score blends 13F value growth, concentration, theme purity, option exposure, and filing history. It is a prioritization score, not a return.

13F value is 21.65x the first tracked filing.

86
ConcentrationPurity describes how much of the portfolio is concentrated in one inferred theme. It is useful when a manager is expressing a very specific thesis.

Top ten public lines are 86.0% of the latest report.

29
Holdings

29 reportable lines in the latest public filing.

5
History

5 tracked quarterly 13F reports in the database or seed layer.

Publisher mode

Twitter-ready card

Evidence layer

What is public, what is inferred

Public SEC data

13F reports disclose long reportable U.S. securities and long put/call options. They do not show cash, private stakes, shorts, written options, or current live holdings.

Inferred theme

Theme tags are deterministic product analysis from issuer, CUSIP, option type, and keyword rules. They are not SEC labels.

Daily automation

Vercel Cron calls the EDGAR ingestion endpoint every day and records per-manager ingestion results.